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BA.2.86 was first identified in Israel through the country's national SARS-CoV-2 sequencing effort. The Israeli sequence, was the first BA.2.86 sequence to be publicly reported and submitted to GISAID, on 13 August 2023. The rapid public sharing of the sequence enabled international surveillance and early risk assessment of the highly divergent lineage. BTW, im the scientist who published it, first here:
"https://x.com/shay_fleishon/status/1690684068642357248" —Preceding unsigned comment added by ~2026-46456-05 (talk) 06:36, 27 August 2026 (UTC)Reply
Latest comment: 1 year ago1 comment1 person in discussion
As Wikipedia says, "Its descendant JN.1 (BA.2.86.1.1) became the dominating Lineage in Winter 2023/2024".
We could be more specific what Winter means here, when did it become dominant, and is it already 99% or 100% of detected variants, JN.1 and subvariants? So if one becomes infected NOW in September 2024 or October 2024, is it in 100% certainty a JN.1 subvariant?
Can we found speculative forecasts what will be dominant in Winter 2024/2025, and Spring 2025?